On the surface, Malcolm gladwell is a great public speaker. Engaging, humorous and clearly adept at handling an audience. I caught Gladwell speaking at the Rotman school of business the other day.
Gladwell spoke about ideas that bloom late. He related the world of art and media to the world of business by talking about creativity and great ideas that sometimes come slowly or only through “happy accident” or serendipity.
he spoke of how venture capitalists and big media these days have often a too-short or too-well-defined expectations such that they risk missing many great ideas that would not have been obvious at the onset of a project. He provided some entertaining and spectacular (anecdotal) examples like Fleetwood Mac or Six Feet Under. both of these franchises were enormously successful in the long run however took considerable time to find their voice and their audience.
Fleetwood Mac’s tipping point came with its 11th album. Had six feet been a regular cable show its initially abysmal audience share would (presumably) had it cancelled in its first season. This is an important idea. A lot of people have been speaking lately about what’s “broken” with venture capital or with Hollywood for that matter these days. Gladwell argues that myopic investment parameters are causing us to miss out on whole fields of creative opportunity.
The trouble I have with Gladwell on Monday, are the same troubles ahead with The Tipping Point, his insights are mostly applicable post-facto.
It’s well and good to say that “sometimes long shots pay off over time” or “sometimes the darnndest little things will make a huge difference” but it’s not very helpful. These same factors which make for the best storytelling , are the least helpful at actually developing testable or predictive models of the creative process.
By marketing his ideas to a business audience it’s like Gladwell is dangling this carrot of huge opportunities in front of us without really providing us any proscriptive advice on how to capture it. It’s a good way to sell books though. As the saying goes, the market for something to believe in is infinite…